Amerika

Apply the theory of dark organizations to a study of wave motion in economies presents two new avenues of realistic theory: first, it isolates humans and their organizational patterns more holistically, and second, it moves economic analysis beyond money and power to the study of cultural change.

For an example of “capitalist waves,” consider the Kondratief Wave/Cycle. This is an economic explanation of growth “long waves” from 1800 onward where a mismatch between short and long term “cycles” creates social and cultural “tension”.  These references probably attempt to show that economy is a driver (because they were written by economists), while an alternative view is that humans actually want to survive already and that economy is therefore a reaction rather than a driver. This leads to an analysis of economic-cultural interaction:

Finally, cultural change is generally accepted as an important influence on economic growth. In the previous section I explored the opposite sense of influence: that from the economic mode of development and availability of technologies to the production of culture, the former creating opportunities and incentives for new developments of the latter. It is in order to emphasize now the impact of culture, as part of the creation of social values, on the dynamics of growth, since these values tend to concentrate the resistance or suspicion about characteristics of the institutional change imposed by the diffusion of the clusters of radical innovations. Social values are shaped by institutions and recognize contracts, laws, routines, types of communication, hierarchies, the forms of each social pact ruling each society, and tend therefore to be adverse to radical and unknown change. Although some societies—some cultures—are more inclined to accept the challenge of innovation and rupture in the previous trajectory, it is understandable that a flexible answer to the hurricane of change is to impose rules that are previously known to the society. Indeed, any new economy or new technology is appropriated according to the previously established knowledge. This is why modern developed societies are so stable: they change but tend to adapt to change. Evolutionary economics is certainly familiar with these processes, since they mimic natural evolution so well, with the creation of variety (i.e. innovation) and the selection of change (i.e. stable environment).

Separate investigation of economically failed organizations point towards a “dark” cultural impact on economics being perhaps more important than suggested above. It is also appropriate to show that the Chinese are also interested in social structure as it relates to economic swings, which is now projected only to last until 2020.

What all the above do not tell us, is how does all of this explain the growth of civilization(s)? Most interestingly, we can apply this to the growth of the next civilization which will come about after the fall of the modern West. The assumption is that this will not be some rigid new world order culture based on greed and arrogance, and also that some form of (dark wave) cultural evolution may be required before the new economic wave will commence.

After the fall of the Roman Empire, it took by some estimates five centuries for an emergence of the next civilization. At the time nobody knew what was going on, roving bands with different languages routinely killed for access to resources, and pestilences struck without notice. That was the Dark-Ages but also, in all likelihood, a dark wave.

A dark wave can also be compared to the opposite of a tsunami, where instead of an earthquake pushing up a wall of seawater rushing ten kilometers inland, an earthquake sucks in such a volume of water that it pulls back seawater ten kilometers from the shoreline. Depending how long it can store this enormous water volume (such as ice would do), this dark wave will disrupt the world in unexpected ways.

For example, international shipping will stop, interrupting oil as well as saltwater fish supply. Last time I looked, most people in the world use some spin-off of the oil industry and most people prefer consuming saltwater fish to freshwater fish.  Taking this further, one can imagine that air-transport will jump at the opportunity causing a thousand-fold increase in air pollution which could obscure the sun to the extent that earth may even cool down.  A true “dark” wave affecting plant and animal life too.

Darkness could also be psychologically compared to a rising chaos, such as a drowning event (via @cernovich). People can easily miss someone drowning five meters away because the person cannot scream with a mouth full of water. This happened to me, but was fortunately saved and was then able to save my niece in a similar fashion. Having experienced it I can verify that darkness descends on you while you frantically slap your hands downwards regardless of whether it’s actually propelling you upwards. My niece was slightly different where she simply walked into the water and essentially remained down there without moving, paralyzed in darkness, until I grabbed her by the hair (literally).  By comparison then, a civilization can drown (in a dark wave) without anybody noticing it. This does not mean all humans are dead, just that their organization is gone, essentially returning them to their animal state.

Other characteristics of a dark wave include that one can’t estimate where it’s going to come from and how long it’s going to last. Because it’s not a cycle, you can’t prepare for it, or get your insurance in order. It is also much worse than a Black Swan “event”.  A dark wave may have other origins unfortunately. Humans are quite capable of destroying themselves, as Western and Eastern Societies have shown, as recently as the last two centuries years. But the current evil axis is not a few bomb-throwing countries (those with low light emissions at night), but Western Leadership’s “bright, smiling” arrogance.

Recently in Japan, President Obama called for an end to nuclear weapons. I imagine at the particular moment he said it, that his own little nuclear suitcase was waiting in the car (just in case). That is arrogance and this dark magician’s cloth he wears literally cause damage to his own citizens through rising crime, suicides and religious terror attacks (excluding bad economy, education etc.).  Routine Executive Action can only be described as arrogance in my opinion, comparable to the big-man in Africa: Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, dark recipient of a British Knighthood.

I was fortunate enough to notice Nick Land’s tweet about this next dark wave (before the new wave) approaching and his suggestion that it could be a shorter period than the last one. America (West) and China (East) should be able to revive a “Chimerica2” — a hybrid of America and China – in my view most likely moving towards what Michio Kaku described as the possibility of a Type 1 Civilization in one or two centuries. (Incidentally he advocates a multicultural scientific future which may be paradoxical, but I am ignoring that for the moment.) However, if a dark wave were to strike us now, Type 1 won’t be possible in any case.

Having a technically defined objective like a Type 1 Civilization or a Chimerica2, would certainly be a beacon of light (not hope), penetrating the rising darkness around us, to energize us (and our children) to mount the horse and the donkey (as in the first modern novel by Miguel de Cervantes of Don Quixote). In our attempt to reach Type 1 or Chimerica2, we are expected to develop a new language (like Cervantes did), the language of realism (maybe). Because after all, Type 1 means consuming a lot more energy than what we are doing now and you cannot do that while building a dark (climatically sustainable) Tower of Babel. (The previous one was broken down manually I think).

To illustrate a possible avenue of “language” development one could use “Dark Organization” knowledge which is a multi-dimensional approach. This can be done via additional focus on Change Management techniques using Quality Systems. As was generously referred to via amerika.org, quality has declined and if one also dig up the successes of Peter Drucker (especially in Japan) it becomes quite clear that a “path” exists from which a Type 1/Chimerica2 language can be derived (not excluding any other means of course).

Language has been considered in the safety-at-work and product safety industry for interpreting the various “publics” involved to consolidate and improve safety performance.  This effort showed that economy is a result of safety and productivity, not the other way around. Any new language for understanding a dark wave will assist with risk assessment and prioritization which is something economists and actuaries are useless without.

The development of this language “product” would in all probability require five phases combining all “matter” applicable. Whether we are ready to develop it or not, it is time to mount our Quixotic donkey and plan for a future in which a dark wave covers most of the earth. The West is dead, and China will soon follow, but some humans will always persist, and they are likely those who remove the blinders from their eyes and anticipate dark waves and the collapse of fragile structures, and then have a language to describe what they must build next to survive.

Tags: black swan, change management, chimerica2, dark organization, dark wave, peter drucker, quality systems