Amerika

Lotteries have been accurately categorized as one of democracy’s taxes levied against the stupid and the oppressed. The mathematics profession and the economics profession both sneer at the lottery as an institution. It’s the same righteous venom a proper gentleman of society would direct towards a tricked-out, West Memphis pimp.

The lottery raises money by selling tickets to a random drawing for a large cash prize. Somewhere towards the bottom of the ticket, in a font size too small for alcoholic adults to easily read; the ticket states that the odds of winning two-million dollars are 1 in ten billion. This ratio keys the entire racket.

The government swindling the poor and disorderly keeps the ratio implausible enough to hoard money, but not so ridiculous that suckers catch on to the fact that they will never win. Handing out one or two mega-prizes every couple of years keeps the sheep lining up to be sheared.

There are, however, rare mathematical exceptions to the implicit rule that only a meathead plays the lottery. A case can be made based on expected value to fork over an occasional fee and shoot your ridiculous shot at nothing. If the value of the prize multiplied by the odds exceeds the cost of one ticket, then a person who could afford to blow some leisure cash on one ticket could give it a go. Why the hell not?

An analogous situation exists for Nikki Haley in this iteration of the GOP presidential primary. Polls indicate that Haley will not win enough delegates to merit going to the nominating convention and thanking Donald Trump for allowing her to attend. The price of staying in is famously exorbitant. At first blush, this decision to still run seems about as logical as her decision to strike the Cross of St. Andrew from the South Carolina state flag.

Yet absent the abstemious chains of boring, old morality, she has her hands on a lottery ticket that might even have more value then initial inspection would suggest. Her polls are all dismal, her beliefs are generally hated by the people she condescends to run on behalf of. Campaigning is a long, demoralizing, and expensive suck. Why do this? It sure isn’t the morals at stake with Nikki Haley. So what gives?

Nikki Haley is the last Republican standing who is not in legal jeopardy from several vectors of blatantly partisan lawfare. If any of these hacks actually hits home, Donald Trump could be legally disqualified the way that Robert Mugabe’s opponents kept being struck from the ballot in Zimbabwe. That would give Nikki Haley a shot at Dementia Joe for The US Presidency. Cry the beloved republic.

But think about the cost. Media time is not a cheap dopamine hit. Travel grinds on body, mind and soul. At least one of the three would impose a cost on Nikki Haley. Except that Nikki Haley is heavily subsidized. Wealthy Democrats want Haley to represent the Republican Party. May the most Marxian win!

So Nikki Haley is in this until the gavel bangs the GOP nominating convention closed. She has no more of a chance at honest victory in this endeavor than Joe Biden had in 2020. Guess how the org chart refers to Joe Biden? President Biden.

Neither the Id nor the Ego would act differently than Nikki Haley is now. She has a desire to be president, she has a pathway to win. Should she do this? Once you get past any lame concept of actual morality in leadership, why the hell not?

Tags: lottery, nikki haley